Live public pick
BetBoss pick (published 2026-08-04 13:30:47 UTC): New York Yankees at -164
St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees — Moneyline
- Event
- St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees
- League
- MLB
- Game start (UTC)
- Published (UTC)
- Market
- Moneyline
- Recommendation
- New York Yankees at -164
- Result
- pending
Analysis
Pass the Yankees moneyline at -164. Dimers gives New York a 61.4% win probability, while -164 requires roughly 62.1% just to break even. The price is slightly too expensive. Pass the Cardinals moneyline at +150. The same model implies fair odds around +159, so +150 does not compensate you adequately for the upset risk—even after St. Louis won the previous meeting 13-7. Avoid both sides of the run line. New York -1.5 at +122 needs about a 45% hit rate, but the cited projection has the Yankees winning by multiple runs only 43% of the time. St. Louis +1.5 at -146 is also heavily juiced. Wait on the 8.5 total. The projection is exactly 50% to go over, making Over -105 and Under -115 both negative-value prices. Don’t force a player prop or parlay without confirmed pitchers and lineups. Verdict: I don’t see an obvious betting opportunity. New York has home-field advantage, but its depleted lineup—Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Cody Bellinger are reported out—offsets much of that appeal. As currently priced, this is effectively a no-bet game, not a profitable 50/50 gamble. 💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰
Sources
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